What is necessary that with sufficient level of a prediction of an end result to predict development of an international situation, military conflicts and directions of development of arms? I shall answer briefly: it needs knowledge of history, algorithms of development of armed forces and arms of the concrete country (countries), mentality of people, a level, character and prospects of internal conflicts inside of the states and the nations, and some more factors. Recently requirements to knowledge of military potentials and characteristics of the weapon plays more and more important role. Unfortunately, the Russian political scientists and military experts very badly understand these questions.
Let's recollect 1999. The beginning of NATO-Yugoslavia War. You remember, how many was speeches from our political and military experts, that Yugoslavia becomes «the second Vietnam» for the USA and NATO. On TV showed of the Yugoslavian army and fighting spirit of Serbs was praised highly. Also what was?
On March, 24th, 1999 at 23.30 Moscow time the aircraft of NATO has striked the first blows on the Yugoslavian objects. There and then in the Russian mass-media victorious shouts have begun. Authors of these shouts, probably, remember them. They are people who consider itself as greater experts in political and military questions, head different research funds and institutes, probably, receive quite good salaries, read lectures to students and so on.
The observer possessing knowledge of military potentials of NATO and Yugoslavia, certainly, had absolutely other conclusions. In distant Yakutsk - capital of Sakha Republic, Siberia region - in the municipal newspaper «The Echo of Capital» in article «What for NATO bombs Yugoslavia?» (¹30, March, 30-31, 1999). I wrote: « … How will long manage to defend Yugoslavia? Possibly, one or two months, not more». NATO's military campaign against Yugoslavia proceeded 78 days. It is easy to notice, that the observer of the provincial municipal newspaper has appeared is much more perspicacious, than scientific misters from different funds and institutes.
Now about the Iraq military campaign-2003. Your observer also doubted abilities of a mode of Saddam Hussein a little long to resist to the USA and multinational contingents.
In clause «Circulation of a life» (the «For favourite city» newspaper, February, 28, 2003) when all world still guessed, will be war in Persian gulf or not, I wrote: « … there Will come night, and time of a new Armageddon will come. Thousand cruise missiles will direct to the purpose, hundreds shock planes, is powerful take-off from a flight deck of aircraft carriers, in effective peak will lay down on a fighting rate. To them fiery jets of volleys of the antiaircraft systems covering the distressful sky of Bagdad towards will depart. Bright flashes on a background of the black sky so are effectively looked on the TV … But war is first of all killed and wounded men, deadmen and cripples. War are the refugees dejectedly going under heated from hatred and despair by the sky. War is an invention of idiots with cave thinking. And in war people to whom it is absolutely not necessary … » first of all perish.
On March, 20th the USA have striked the first blows across Iraq, and already on April, 9th Bagdad has fallen. In clause «The Celebration of Power» (the newspaper «For favourite city», ¹11 (49), on March, 28th, 2003) I have made the assumption, that «the USA and the Great Britain ñìåòóò Hussein's mode for a month-one or 55 days». Very few people trusted. Many spoke about long war.
Readers, probably, know, who spoke about «the second Vietnam», Bagdad as about «Stalingrad» (reportings «ÎRT» - the first Russian state TV channel) most. Allow to bear on your attention a fragment from clause «Lessons of Iraq», the military campaign written already after the termination (the newspaper «For favourite city», ¹14 (53) from April, 18th, 2003): « … you saw reportings of ORT, RTR and NTV correspondents? These «front journalists» do not understand at all military technics, strategy and tactics, and it is simply inconvenient to speak about their forecasts of the further succession of events. Almost their all information was reduced to that the bomb there has blown up, and the plane here flies. At the same time they did not forget to shout, that US huge losses wait, that in « Bagdad it is a lot of the people, capable to die in the last ditch … ».
In this clause I have reminded words of the chief of Joint Staff of Armed Forces of Russian Federation Êvashnin that «Yugoslavia will win NATO armada and the military help of Russia is not required to it» as an example of silly military thinking. Thus, in Russia business with military forecast are WORSE THAN EVER.
Now it is a lot of conversations that the USA have made a mistake, having gone on the military decision of a problem saddam's Iraq, that in Iraq was not the weapon of mass destruction, and that US ïîãðÿçëà in Iraq. But I consider, that it was the correct decision. Today there is no Iraq, capable to have the nuclear weapon (to Gardens the mode aspired to possession of the status of a nuclear power - «a regional military superpower country»), and, thus, America has successfully solved this problem. And that in conditions of occupation there will be numerous acts of terrorism, especially from Iraq shiites, having close communications with Iran, was clear. But it is all the same better, than if the mode existed, capable to have the nuclear weapon and to blackmail all world.
Pleasant viewings! We hope for long-term cooperation.
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